Bolstered by an impressive performance in the global specialty business and outstanding results in the Indian market, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, the largest pharmaceutical (pharma) company in the country, showcased a strong performance in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24).
A strong performance in the July-September quarter of 2023-24 (Q2FY24), an upward revision in the margin guidance and sustained momentum in US sales has helped the stock of pharmaceutical major Cipla gain about 2 per cent over the last two trading sessions. The brokerages have upgraded the earnings estimates for this financial year (FY24) by 6-9 per cent to factor in the improved margin guidance and sales in the US market. Led by the US market, which rose by 31 per cent, the company posted a 16 per cent growth in revenues.
Even as the slowdown in the information technology (IT) services sector deepens, banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), as well as oil and gas companies, emerge as the primary drivers of corporate earnings in the country. The IT services sector's share in corporate earnings declined to a five-year low of 17.4 per cent in the second quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), whereas banks and finance companies accounted for 46.5 per cent, and oil and gas firms contributed 16.8 per cent. At their peak, IT services firms like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, HCLTech, and Wipro represented just over a third of the combined net profit of all listed companies in the Business Standard sample.
10 non-bank and non-finance stocks from the BSE500 Index universe that offer an optimal blend of low valuation, reasonably robust revenue and earnings growth in recent quarters, a strong balance sheet, and most importantly, positive cash flow from their operations.
The Colgate-Palmolive (India) stock gained 2.3 per cent in trade on Friday, and ended at Rs 2,079 per share. This was on the back of a robust operating performance in the July-September quarter of 2023-24 (Q2FY24) and expectations of gradual sales recovery going ahead. While the stock is up 44 per cent from its lows in January this year, further gains will depend on its ability to sustain higher growth rates.
Since the start of this financial year (FY24), the stock of Aurobindo Pharma has been one of the top pharma gainers, enhancing investor wealth by over 68 per cent, with a third of those gains coming in the last three months. The stock is riding on multiple triggers given its investments in the production-linked incentive or PLI scheme, biosimilars, injectables and vaccines, which should drive revenues and profits over the medium term. Better than expected performance after the June quarter results led to a revision of earnings estimates for FY24 and FY25.
The July-September quarter results of software companies in the engineering research and development (ER&D) segment were broadly in line with expectations, though there have been cuts in revenue growth guidance. While results were a mixed bag, and there are cautionary views on the near-term outlook, brokerages and global consulting firms highlight the strong growth trajectory for the sector. They expect this segment of the software sector to grow by 8-12 per cent going forward.
The combined net profit of "early bird" companies, those that have declared their quarterly results, rose for the third consecutive quarter in July-September 2023 (Q2FY24). But the figures suggest a continued slowdown in revenue growth and stagnation in earnings over recent quarters. This slowdown is severe for companies in the manufacturing and non-financial service sectors.
Since their highs in September, chemical stocks have underperformed the benchmarks and broader indices over the past month with larger players witnessing a 9-22 per cent fall during this period. Expectations of weak September quarter results amid high inventory, demand woes and weak realisations have led to the underperformance.
'A cutback in hiring and compensation growth by IT companies will have a significant impact on consumer demand, especially in the urban sector of the economy.'
Hotel companies, which have experienced substantial share price gains in the past six months, are not only expected to post robust revenue growth in the seasonally weak July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), with the trend continuing in the second half (H2) of FY24, but according to some analysts, they will also benefit from a structural uptrend in progress. To begin with, larger players in the listed hotel sector are expected to report strong growth in Q2 compared to the year-ago quarter. Led by higher demand from the business segment, the sector is expected to achieve a growth rate of 15-30 per cent.
Kajaria Ceramics, the country's leading listed tile manufacturer, has seen its stock fall by 7 per cent over the past month amid concerns about rising input costs and sluggish domestic demand. Other listed stocks also experienced weakness in September, although there was some recovery in October. While strong exports are expected to help stabilise domestic market prices, the surge in gas prices over the past couple of months may have impacted margins in the second half of FY24.
Notwithstanding record revenues in certain media sectors like film exhibition in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2), the operational performance of the broadcasting business remained subdued. Zee Entertainment Enterprises and Sun TV are expected to experience a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decline in advertising (ad) revenues during this period. Conversely, box office (BO) collections are anticipated to exceed Rs 3,000 crore in the quarter, propelled by a series of successful movie releases.
The stock of Dixon Technologies (India), the country's largest listed electronic manufacturing services (EMS) player, was up 6 per cent in 10 trading sessions, boosting the gains over the last three months to 21 per cent. The gains came following reports that Dixon will produce laptops in India in partnership with US and Chinese firms under the production-linked investment (PLI) scheme. It recently signed an agreement to make smartphones for Xiaomi India.
The S&P BSE Realty Index has emerged as one of the top-performing sectors, yielding a remarkable 45 per cent return over the past six months. The three leading players, listed by market capitalisation, have substantially enriched investor wealth by 43-70 per cent during this period. If the second quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24) updates from Macrotech Developers (Lodha) and Sobha, along with industry data for the quarter, serve as any indication, the trend of strong bookings for larger players is expected to continue.
India's corporate sector is likely to report a slowdown in revenue growth and earnings for the July-September 2023 period (Q2FY24), according to earnings estimates by brokerages, after the country's top listed companies posted higher than expected profits for the first quarter. The combined net profit of Nifty50 companies, based on brokerage estimates, is expected to have grown by 19.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 1.75 trillion in Q2FY24 - a sharp deceleration from 37.6 per cent Y-o-Y growth in the combined earnings of index companies in the April-June 2023 period. According to estimates, the combined earnings in the second quarter would be down 8.8 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis and the lowest in the past three quarters.
The reported buyback of Temasek's 20 per cent stake in Tata Play by Tata Sons will be the third instance of Tata Group providing an exit to a foreign partner in recent years. In 2018, Tata Sons paid $1.27 billion to DoCoMo to buy back 26 per cent of the group's telecommunication venture, Tata Teleservices. This was followed by Tata Sons acquiring AirAsia Berhad's 49 per cent stake in AirAsia India in two tranches to make it a wholly owned subsidiary.
A muted revenue performance in the September quarter and weak management commentary weighed on the stock of consumer major Marico which shed 8.5 per cent to Rs 542 from its intraday highs on Tuesday. The company indicated that demand trends were similar to that of the June quarter with instances of increasing food prices and below-normal rainfall distribution in some regions impeding the anticipated recovery in rural demand.
Metal and mining companies, such as Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Hindalco, and Coal India, have been among the top-performing sectors on the bourses in recent months. The S&P BSE Metal Index is up 13 per cent in the past three months, rallying 29 per cent in the past year, outperforming the broader market. For comparison, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has only seen a 1.7 per cent increase in the past three months, with a 15 per cent gain since the end of September last year.
While the four largest listed paint companies have seen marginal negative returns, the S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and the National Stock Exchange Nifty FMCG indices have delivered a solid 16 per cent return during the same period. Initially, volume growth and reduced costs bolstered the sector's sentiment, but brokerages have grown cautious due to increased competitive pressures.
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